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Gartner’s 2019 blockchain hype cycle promises ‘transformational’ impact… in 10 years

Gartner has taken out its crystal ball again and put out its
latest hype cycle for blockchain – predicting that the business impact of
blockchain technologies will be ‘transformational’ across the majority of
industries in 10 years.

The hype cycle (below) features a wide variety of potential use cases, with the vast majority coming to fruition within the decade. Only a handful, such as an extremely nascent collaboration of blockchain and 3D printing, are seen with a longer timeframe.

Gartner notes three primary industries as key to the long-term
growth of blockchain technologies. Banking and investment is an obvious one, as
is retail, with particular regard to ‘track and trace’ and provenance on the supply
chain, while gaming is a more left-field choice.

‘In the fast-growing eSport industry, blockchain natives are
launching solutions that allow users to create their own tokens to support the
design of competition as well as to enable trading of virtual goods,’ Gartner
notes. “Gaming startups provide appealing alternatives to the ecosystem
approaches of Amazon, Google or Apple, and serve as a model for companies in
other industries to develop digital strategies,” added Christophe Uzureau,
Gartner research vice president.

Regular readers of this publication will note that Gartner
has had its glass half-empty this year when it came to prognostications around
blockchain.

In May, the company argued that ‘blockchain
fatigue’
would set in when it came to the supply chain when strong use
cases would not immediately avail themselves. Up to 90% of initiatives
featuring the application of blockchain in the supply chain would suffer by
2023, Gartner noted.

This time around, however, the prognosis is better, although
it is worth noting that while cryptocurrency is predicted to be over the traditional
‘trough of disillusionment’ slump, blockchain technologies in a wider focus are
soon set to hit the lowest ebb.

According to the most recent Gartner CIO survey, three in five (60%) said they had expected some level of adoption for blockchain technologies in the next three years. “However, the existing digital infrastructure of organisations and the lack of clear blockchain governance are limiting CIOs from getting full value with blockchain,” added David Furlonger, Gartner distinguished research vice president.

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